How does the mass emigration of Ukrainians caused by the full-scale Russian invasion affect and will affect the economic and demographic situation in Ukraine? How to encourage Ukrainian refugees to return home, is it realistic to do so now, what steps are needed, and what effect can be expected? What will motivate Ukrainians to choose their homeland as their country of residence? All this was discussed in an interview with the online publication "RBC-Ukraine" by senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences Oleksiy Poznyak.
On the consequences of large-scale emigration:
"This is a rather large scale [of forced emigration of Ukrainians]. And it is a serious blow both to demography and to the ability to supply the economy with labor, and generally just to the normal functioning of the state. This is a very serious problem. <…> [In the near future] we may see problems in the labor market. It will be difficult to find people for certain vacancies, especially in certain specialties. Regarding salaries – there may be some increases, but this factor also has certain limits. <…> The loss of a significant number of young and middle-aged people, including women, will lead to a decrease in birth rates and a corresponding reduction in the demand for preschool and school institutions. This will cause an increase in unemployment among representatives of the relevant professions. In addition, migration losses will lead to an acceleration of population aging and an increase in the burden on those segments of society that produce material goods and paid services."
On the conditions under which refugees' return is possible:
"If a significant portion of migrants returns, this will contribute to economic development. And this is possible, in particular, under the condition of the end of the war and the establishment of security. The second condition is whether there will be employment opportunities.
Currently, there is often talk about investments that will be made in the Ukrainian economy during the post-war recovery process. If this really happens, then we can expect the return of a significant portion of our migrants and an influx of migrants from other countries. <…>
In general, even before the full-scale invasion and even before the start of the hybrid war, experts estimated: if the salary at home is about 70% of the salary level in the recipient country, this is a serious incentive for refugees to return. This 30% difference is compensated by the fact that the person is within the legal framework of their own country. It is compensated by the fact that everything around is familiar. <…>
It may play a role that part of the migrants who value their previous career achievements will return. These are those who worked in prestigious jobs in Ukraine, while abroad few can find similar positions. Most are offered fairly simple jobs there.
The feeling of a lowered social status is a very serious blow, including psychologically. And the possibility to restore this status even with lower earnings can also be an incentive to return. And if we talk about earnings, it should be kept in mind that in Ukraine they are lower, but prices are generally lower than in EU countries. Purchasing power is not the same as salary. <…>
One of the most important factors is housing. Because many have nowhere to return to, and if there is no possibility to get housing without giving up all their money, this will hold refugees back from the desire to return. <…>
The reconstruction of communities as a whole will also have an impact. If a person lives in comfortable housing and has a good job, but when moving, say from point A to point B, sees ruins, this will not contribute to good well-being. It will depress the person. And this can affect the quality of work, family situation, and psychological state.
Of course, access to medical services, social services, and education will play a role. It is important for children to have the opportunity to convert their knowledge gained in host countries into the Ukrainian school system. So that subjects that coincide or are close are credited to them.
It is also important for people to see that Ukraine is fighting corruption and that the rule of law operates. The state must be oriented towards the people. <…>
At this stage, it is simply necessary to maintain contact with them [Ukrainians abroad], to show and demonstrate that the state is interested in them, that they have not been forgotten. To show that the state wants to cooperate with them. It is necessary to maintain ties with Ukrainian public organizations abroad.
Also important is the education of our children in Ukrainian international schools and education by other means according to our national program. If a child attends school in the host country, it will be difficult, but then it is necessary to promote that children at least study subjects not taught in those schools they attend. These are Ukrainian history, language, literature. <…>
One of the directions of state policy that needs to be implemented now is to explain to the population that we need our people who left. Yes, they did not pay taxes to Ukraine, but they were safe and can bring benefits to Ukraine in the future. Stimulating tolerance in society is one of the important directions of our state policy."
On the prospects of re-emigration of Ukrainians and the importance of the diaspora:
"[The number of Ukrainians ready to return home] also depends on how the [war] ends. If it is just a freeze without serious guarantees of non-extension, that is one thing. If there are really serious guarantees, if at least part of the territory occupied by Russia is returned, that will be a different situation. It can be said that about half may return, and about half will not return.
Will the promised investments come? If they do, more people will return. Unfortunately, now we have a lot of uncertainty with all the figures related to the forced external migration of our citizens.
What does world experience tell us? The majority of those who returned did so in the first years after the war ended. This is evidenced by the experience of wars in the former Yugoslavia. At the same time, some people from these countries settled in other states and still live there. <…>
And in general, there is a common migration pattern: the longer the migration lasts, the larger the share of migrants who will not return. This is a factor that applies at all times and to all peoples. <…>
It is easier to return refugees who left precisely because of the large-scale war. Because among labor migrants, there are relatively few who had highly qualified jobs in Ukraine, and they are generally satisfied with the level of jobs they have. That is, they are satisfied not only with the salary but with the work itself. <…>
…We have examples of powerful diasporas in the USA and Canada that have existed for more than a century, and people there consider themselves Ukrainians. Of course, not all people of Ukrainian origin feel a connection with Ukraine. This is an objective reality. But still, the diaspora remains quite powerful. And if we have similarly powerful diasporas in European countries, they can be our lobbyists. Because worldwide, a powerful diaspora loyal to the state of origin always strengthens the influence of that state."