Are groundwater sources capable of compensating for the loss of the Kakhovka Reservoir? How will water supply in southern Ukraine change under climate change conditions? What could be the consequences for the agricultural sector, industry, ecosystems of the Lower Dnipro, and the region's economy?
Scientists of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine are seeking answers to these questions within the framework of a large-scale interdisciplinary study of the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. The first results of the work were presented on May 27, 2026, at a regular meeting of the NAS of Ukraine Working Group analyzing the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP dam, chaired by the first vice-president of the NAS of Ukraine, academician Vyacheslav Bohdanov.
Opening the meeting, Vyacheslav Bohdanov emphasized that the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP has become not only a large-scale environmental and humanitarian disaster but also a national-scale challenge for water supply systems, energy, industry, and the agricultural sector.
"Science must not only assess the consequences of this catastrophe but also propose tools for making responsible state decisions," he stressed.
He also highlighted that this project has become an example of effective interdisciplinary cooperation between institutions of the NAS of Ukraine and the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine. Specialists in hydrology, climatology, hydrobiology, geology, economics, and remote sensing of the Earth are involved in the work, allowing a comprehensive consideration of the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP—from water management balance and drinking water supply to ecological and economic impacts on the region.
The work is being carried out under a state order from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine through joint efforts of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and NAS of Ukraine, the Institute of Hydrobiology of NAS of Ukraine, the Institute of Geological Sciences of NAS of Ukraine, the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine, the Scientific Center for Aerospace Earth Research of the Institute of Geological Sciences of NAS of Ukraine, and the Institute of Water Problems and Melioration of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine.
The researchers focus not only on the fate of the Kakhovka Reservoir itself. The goal is to form a scientific basis for future state decisions regarding water supply, development of agricultural production, industrial operations, energy functioning, and preservation of ecosystems in southern Ukraine amid war, post-war recovery, and climate change.
Water security: the problem is much broader than restoring a single dam
The main results of the first research block were presented by the director of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and NAS of Ukraine, academician Volodymyr Osadchyi.
According to him, the loss of the Kakhovka Reservoir is not only an ecological or hydrological problem. The consequences of the dam's destruction directly affect the water, food, energy, and economic security of the state. That is why the study united specialists in hydrology, hydrogeology, climatology, hydrobiology, remote sensing, economics, and modern information technologies.
One of the key results was the calculation of the water management balance for the sub-basins of the Pripyat, Desna, Upper, and Middle Dnipro. The researchers analyzed dozens of water management sites and modeled scenarios of average, low, and very low water availability. The results showed that in very low water years, water deficits become systemic and cover an increasing part of the Dnipro basin.
Especially important is the conclusion that the problem of the Lower Dnipro cannot be solved solely by engineering restoration of a single object—even one as large as the Kakhovka Reservoir. Comprehensive management of the entire Dnipro basin is necessary, taking into account the operating regimes of the cascade of reservoirs, climate change, actual water consumption, and ecological needs of the river system.
To this end, scientists are developing the web-oriented information-analytical system Dnipro-WEB, which is intended to become a practical tool for government bodies and water management organizations. The system will allow working with water availability scenarios, water resource deficits, climate forecasts, and assessing the consequences of various management decisions.
An important component of the study was climate projections. Scientists formed an ensemble of high spatial resolution Euro-CORDEX climate models and performed forecast calculations until the end of the 21st century. The results indicate a stable trend of increasing air temperatures and growing risks of precipitation deficits in southern regions of Ukraine.
This means that water scarcity in the Lower Dnipro is not only a consequence of the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP. The destruction of the reservoir sharply exacerbated the problem, but climate change makes it long-term. That is why, researchers emphasize, future decisions must be planned decades ahead.
A separate block of work was devoted to detailed mapping of the territory of the former Kakhovka Reservoir. Using satellite data, scientists tracked the dynamics of changes from the first days after the dam's destruction. It was established that even at maximum filling of residual water bodies, the water volume was only about 12% of the former reservoir volume. The researchers' conclusion is unequivocal: residual water bodies have important ecological significance but cannot perform the functions of a regional water supply source.
Equally indicative were the results of satellite analysis of land use in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The most dramatic changes were recorded in Kherson region. In 2024, over 71% of the region's territory was under occupation, and losses of areas under certain agricultural crops reached from 71% to 98%.
The data obtained indicate that even if water supply is restored, the agricultural sector will not automatically return to its pre-war state. This requires territorial security, demining, infrastructure restoration, investments, and implementation of modern water-saving technologies.
Scientists also paid significant attention to groundwater. For the first time, GIS-integrated models of the main aquifers were created for seven water management sites of the Lower Dnipro sub-basin, and their resources were reviewed. The study showed significant potential of groundwater to cover part of the region's needs, but their use requires additional research, quality control, and the creation of scientifically justified exploitation schemes.
The prospects for drinking water supply were analyzed separately. While the problem was largely stabilized in Dnipropetrovsk region thanks to new water pipelines, the issue remains complex for Zaporizhzhia region and requires further solutions. For Kherson region, groundwater may become one of the key reserves.
In conclusion, the researchers stated that future decisions regarding the Kakhovka Reservoir cannot be reduced to the choice of "to restore or not to restore." In reality, it is about forming a new water policy for southern Ukraine that must consider climate risks, population needs, agriculture and industry, ecological runoff, groundwater resources, energy needs, and the economic cost of each scenario.
What is happening in the territory of the former reservoir
Senior researcher of the Scientific Center for Aerospace Earth Research of the Institute of Geological Sciences of NAS of Ukraine, Candidate of Technical Sciences Olga Tomchenko spoke about the results of satellite monitoring of the Kakhovka Reservoir territory and adjacent regions.
Scientists have been continuously analyzing satellite data since 2023. During this time, they assessed the scale of flooding of settlements and infrastructure after the dam's destruction, analyzed the disaster's impact on protected areas of the Lower Dnipro, and studied changes in water quality in the Dnipro-Bug estuary and the Black Sea waters.
A separate area of work concerns monitoring the condition of agricultural lands in regions affected by the destruction of the Kakhovka HPP. Satellite observations allow not only recording changes but also assessing their dynamics and forecasting further developments.
Researchers are also studying the transformation of the former reservoir territory after its drainage. Based on accumulated data, a forecast is being formed of biophysical and geoecological processes that will determine the future of this territory over the coming years and decades.
New risks after water withdrawal
Another important research direction was presented by academician-secretary of the Department of Earth Sciences of NAS of Ukraine, director of the Institute of Geological Sciences of NAS of Ukraine, academician Stella Shekhunova. Her report was devoted to hazardous geological processes in the zone affected by the former Kakhovka Reservoir.
Specialists of the Institute created a comprehensive database and analyzed territories prone to dangerous exogenous geological processes. In particular, karst phenomena, slope processes, flooding, subsidence of loess soils, and other risks that can significantly affect further economic development of the territories were studied.
Modern spatial analysis methods in the ArcGIS environment were applied. Scientists ranked territories by frequency and intensity of various geological processes, determined areas of potential impact, and assessed the role of tectonic features and relief in their development.
Special attention was paid to the impact of the sharp water level drop after dam destruction on the development of slope processes and gully formation. As a result, a long-term predictive model of the spatial-temporal development of gullies in the former Kakhovka Reservoir zone was created.
Scientists emphasize that these models have practical significance for post-war recovery of the territories. They can be used in planning infrastructure projects, risk assessment, and preparation of reconstruction strategies according to the principles of "Build Back Better" and "Build Back Greener."
The next stage – recommendations for state decisions
Following the meeting, participants approved the presented research results and supported the continuation of work according to the approved plan.
The next stages of the project include completing the water management balance calculations for the Lower Dnipro, performing hydrogeological modeling, creating a fully functional version of the Dnipro-WEB information-analytical system, developing alternative drinking water supply options, and preparing scientifically grounded recommendations on the feasibility or infeasibility of restoring the Kakhovka Reservoir.
In fact, this is the first comprehensive attempt in Ukraine to assess the consequences of the destruction of a large reservoir due to military actions and to propose scientific solutions for the future of one of the country's most important regions. Scientists are convinced that the answers to the questions raised today after the Kakhovka catastrophe will determine not only the fate of the Lower Dnipro but also the development trajectory of the entire south of Ukraine in the coming decades.
