In the first three years of occupation, the area of artificial pine plantations in the Oleshky Sands decreased by approximately 30 thousand hectares – that is 64.3% compared to the situation before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine.
The scientists from the Black Sea Biosphere Reserve of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine assessed scale of these changes. The research results were published in the article "War and Artificial Pine Plantations of the Oleshky Sands: on the Threshold of a New Reality" in volume 28 of the scientific journal GEO&BIO.
The scientists used Sentinel-2 satellite data and machine learning methods based on artificial neural networks. This gave the possibility to model the distribution of pine stands as of February 23, 2022 and February 12, 2025, compare the obtained models, and determine the scale of pine forest reduction and fragmentation in different parts of the Oleshky Sands.
The pine forests of the Oleshky Sands have a relatively recent history. From 1949 until the late 1980s, about 70 thousand hectares of predominantly monoculture pine plantations were created in the region. They were intended to stabilize the sands and over several decades became one of the defining elements of the local landscapes.
At the same time, it was an artificially created system, whose existence largely depended on constant care, fire protection and restoration of damaged areas. The pine forests of the Oleshky Sands were very vulnerable to fires, could not fully recover on their own and in some places replaced natural groups of sandy vegetation. Therefore, the significance of these plantations for the nature of the region cannot be reduced to a simple contrast between forest and open sands.
According to the authors, by the beginning of 2022, about 46.6 thousand hectares of forests planted in the second half of the 20th century remained. However, full-scale invasion, occupation and cessation of forestry activities have sharply accelerated their destruction.
Already in the spring of 2022, large-scale fires engulfed the pine plantations of the Kinburn Peninsula, Ivanivska and Oleshkivska arenas. Due to hostilities, mine danger, and the actual cessation of forestry, the possibilities for forest care, protection, and timely fire extinguishing have sharply decreased.
Over the past three years, fires directly or indirectly related to hostilities have destroyed approximately one and a half times more pine forests in Oleshky Sands than in the previous three decades. However, 30 thousand hectares is not the final result: the modeling reflects the situation as of February 12, 2025, while the region remains a zone of hostilities and the forests continue to burn.
Distribution patterns of pine plantations within the Oleshky Sands: as of February 23, 2022 (top) and as of February 12, 2025 (bottom). Arenas of the Oleshky Sands: 1 – Kakhovska, 2 – Kozacholagerska, 3 – Oleshkivska, 4 – Chalbaska, 5 – Zburivska, 6 – Ivanivska, 7 – Kinburn Peninsula (click on the image to view in original size).
The pine forests of the Oleshkivska and Kozacholagerska arenas suffered the largest absolute losses – about 8.8 and 5.9 thousand hectares, respectively. The largest relative losses were recorded on the Kinburn Peninsula: about 4.8 thousand hectares, or 86.1% of the pine stands that existed at the beginning of 2022, burned down here.
The changes consist not only in the reduction of area. Large forest areas have broken up into numerous smaller and isolated areas, and the average area of a single fragment of pine stands has decreased almost fourfold. The cumulative effects of the fires of previous decades and the first years of occupation resulted in the fact that the pine ecosystem formed in the second half of the 20th century has lost its former dominant role in the landscapes of the Oleshky Sands.
A feature of modern fires is that dead wood remains in place. Previously, forest stands destroyed by fire were mostly cut down within one or two years, and the wood was taken away. Now, at least 30 thousand hectares of dead wood remains – dead but still standing trees. Due to hostilities, mine danger, destroyed infrastructure and depopulation of the region, it will be impossible to remove them for a long time, even after de-occupation.
The authors of the study suggest that damaged trees will gradually fall, forming large windfalls. Their decomposition, repeated fires, and natural vegetation regeneration will determine the development of the burns for a long time to come.
The loss of pine forests does not necessarily result in continuous open sands. Previous observations suggest that most of the older burned areas gradually overgrew naturally, with pockets of active sand drift occurring only in isolated areas with adverse conditions. Winds can further restrain sand movement, giving vegetation time to recover.
Presumably, a mosaic of steppe, meadow and tree-shrub communities will form in place of the former solid pine massifs. Dnieper birch groves may appear in some areas, and Scots pine will naturally regenerate in lowlands with favorable soil conditions. The reduction in forest area may also affect soils, water balance and groundwater levels, and the fragmentation of plantations may change the ecological relationships between various parts of the landscape.
The scientists emphasize that these are possible courses of further changes, not definitive consequences. Systematic remote monitoring, in particular, observation of the decay of dead wood, natural overgrowth of burned areas, and the spread of open sands, will show the future state of the Oleshky Sands.
The comprehensive field studies shall be added to remote sensing after de-occupation and demining. They should form the basis of an environmentally-oriented management strategy for the region, taking into account already recorded changes and possible courses for further development of its ecosystems.
Article bibliography:
Moskalenko, Y., Nitochko, M., Pliushch, S. (2026). War and the Artificial Pine Plantations of the Oleshky Sands: on the threshold of a new reality. GEO&BIO, 28, 83–97. DOI: 10.53452/gb2808
Information is provided by the Black Sea Biosphere Reserve of the NAS of Ukraine