According to the latest forecasts of the United Nations, Ukraine may face an unprecedented reduction in the share of youth in the population structure. It is expected that by 2050 the number of young people aged 15-24 may decrease threefold, making up only 6.6% of the total population.
The situation was commented on by the Deputy Director of the Mikhail Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine Oleksandr Gladun in an exclusive interview for TSN.ua.
The scientist emphasized that any long-term forecasts (up to 2050 and beyond) should be perceived not as an inevitable fact, but as a "forecast-warning." Such calculations are based on certain hypotheses regarding birth rates, mortality, and migration, which are extremely difficult to model accurately during an active phase of war.
At the same time, the expert stresses: even under different scenarios, Ukraine is already facing serious demographic challenges today. These include a decrease in the number of young people, an intensification of migration processes, and the overall aging of the nation – trends that have significantly worsened under the conditions of full-scale war.
Despite the difficult forecasts, the scientist calls for prudence: even with a significant reduction in numbers, Ukraine will remain one of the large countries in Europe. The main task today is to develop effective demographic and economic policies that would minimize the risks outlined by international organizations.