Ella Libanova, Academician of the NAS of Ukraine, Director of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine analyzed the demographic situation in Ukraine in the fifth year of the full-scale war in an interview with the "SUPERPOSITION" YouTube channel, focusing on the prospects for the return of Ukrainians from abroad, changes in migration sentiments, and challenges for the labor market. According to the scientist, expectations regarding the scale of refugee return have significantly changed. While in 2022 the possible return of 50-60% of Ukrainians was discussed, now a figure of about 30% seems more realistic. The decisive factor is the duration of the war: a significant number of people have already integrated into European societies, found jobs, and children have adapted to the educational systems of other countries. At the same time, according to Ella Libanova, highly qualified specialists who work abroad in the specialty they have not trained in and have lost their social status, as well as those whose housing units in Ukraine were not destroyed, have the highest chances to return.
The interview focused on the competition for human capital. European countries facing an aging population are interested in attracting Ukrainians as a labor resource. This is especially true for young people and women of active working age.
The expert also drew attention to discussions regarding the status of temporary protection in European countries for Ukrainians, particularly men of mobilization age. In her opinion, statements by European politicians may be related not only to support for Ukraine but also to internal political and legal considerations. Ella Libanova named a labor shortage as one of the key challenges after the end of the war. The country will likely have to attract foreign workers to rebuild, which will require the formation of an effective state policy for migrant integration. The conversation also raised the complex issue of Ukrainians abroad participating in elections. According to the researcher, this creates an ethical dilemma, as decisions will affect those living in wartime conditions. The importance of preserving social unity and countering narratives that deepen the division between Ukrainians in Ukraine and abroad was emphasized, as well as the need to develop a balanced migration policy.