System Analysis Department
 Professor Igor E.Timchenko- Head of System Analysis Department
Scientists - 10; Engineers - 4; Technician - 2
Basic scientific directions
 Elaboration of a
system methodology of management of sustainable development of
complex social ecological-economical systems.
Development of a
theory of dynamic-stochastic modeling of the processes in natural
(including marine) environment and also the processes of
social-economic development.
Construction of the
models of marine ecosystems using modern methods of investigation of
complex systems: the theory of neuron networks, genetic algorithms,
object-oriented modeling etc.
Development and
introduction of a new method of modeling of complex systems, i.e.
the method of Adaptive Balance of Causes (ABC).
Development of
information technologies of rational nature management based on the
unified model of the ecological-economic system of ABC AGENT which
uses intelligent agents in the dynamic equations of the models of
nature-economic complexes.
Projects
National projects
"International fundamental researches of coastal and shelf of Azov - Black Sea basin"
(code “Ecoshelf");
Searching Theme "Development of the automated systems of the
marine environment ecological control" (code «Ecohydrocontrol");
Searching Theme “Research of optimal integration processes
providing ecologically safe development of the coastal regions of
Ukraine " (code “Integration").
Result
The system
methodology of the ocean study based on the system principles
developed in the department is proposed. Its basic idea consists in
a conventional (in relation to the observations) averaging of the
ocean dynamics equations and adaptive balance of causes in the
system «the modeled phenomenon - environment».
New
dynamic-stochastic direction in the ocean modeling including the
methods of four-dimensional and systems four-dimensional analysis of
the oceanological fields is proposed and developed.
Based on the
information of numerous direct surveys of the ocean fields on the
polygons and the data of satellites measurements, practical methods
of assimilating the observation data in the numerical models of the
ocean dynamics necessary for constructing geo-information systems in
modern operative oceanography are proposed and grounded.
Evolution algorithms
of modeling the oceanologic processes and fields are developed. New
methods of prognosis and reconstruction of their values based on
fragmentary observation data and using empiric orthogonal functions,
genetic algorithms and the theory of neuron networks are proposed.
New method of
modeling of complex ecological-economical systems, i.e. the method
of Adaptive Balance of Causes (ABS method) uniting the ideas of
Kolmogorov and Kalman optimum filtration and the Forrester method of
system dynamics is developed. ABC method permits to construct
dynamic models of natural processes based on cause-and-effect
relations between them. It provides an opportunity to estimate
objectively the coefficients of these models through reanalysis of
the observed processes.
Information
technology of management of sustainable development of
ecological-economical systems ABC AGENT based on the systems
methodology and using intelligent agents is proposed. Together with
ABC method of modeling the complex systems and the evolution
algorithms of observation processing, the technology permits to
ground rational structures of environment-controlling
geo-information systems and management of its resources.
New methods of
control of the environment resources consumption based on systems
principles of nature management are developed.
For further information please contact:
System Analysis Department
Marine Hydrophysical Institute,
2, Kapitanskaya St., Sevastopol, 99011, Ukraine
Phone: 380-692-540452
E-mail: sa@alpha.mhi.iuf.net
timchenko@stel.sebastopol.ua
|
